Scenario Modelling

Scenarios are a useful tool to examine the ‘what if’ question in relation to resource use and sustainability.  Scenarios do not attempt to predict or forecast the future, but rather explore possibilities and can be used to indicate potential impacts of current policies and trends by using indicators such as material consumption, the Ecological Footprint and carbon emissions. 

SRI uses scenario building in combination with stakeholder engagement and decision support methodologies to present potential future outcomes based on ‘business as usual’, ‘evolutionary’ and ‘revolutionary’ sets of trends and policy initiatives to decision makers.  SRI is currently using the Resources and Energy Analysis Programme (REAP) developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute, to build and explore scenarios on resource use in Northern Ireland as part of Northern Visions.